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ISSN : 1598-7248 (Print)
ISSN : 2234-6473 (Online)
Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Vol.19 No.4 pp.877-887
DOI : https://doi.org/10.7232/iems.2020.19.4.877

# The Effects of Methods of Trading Margin in the Movement of Trading Stocks in the Iraq Stock Exchange

Shatha Abdul Hussein Jebur*, Haidar Hamza Jody Al-Duleimy
Technical College of Management, Middle Technical University, Iraq
College of Management and Economics, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Iraq
*Corresponding Author, E-mail: yhusseinabbas@yahoo.com
September 20, 2020 October 9, 2020 October 15, 2020

## ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the swapping scale depreciation impact on the amount and intensive margin trading (trades value), in addition the exporting of new items and products into new export markets (extensive margin trading). We use data for monthly sector-level and firm-level for the period 2006–2017. This investigation is done to Iraq, which has all the earmarks of being an intriguing case to be analyzed, considering a few changes that have happened in its conversion scale system. The swapping scale is measured by swapping scale misalignment and the real effective swapping scale. The consequences of the exchanging edge show that a lessening in the genuine swapping scale raises the fares an incentive without influencing the amount of fares. Also, emphasizing the observed fact, that the value effect is more important as compared to the quantity effect: devaluation decreases the foreign currency price of trades, but does not raise the number of exports. At the sectorial level, the escalated edge exchanging appears to issue for barely any things and items more than others. Indeed, the most beneficial items and products are those for Iraq, which has a comparative benefit and that are sensitive to real exchange rate (RER) devaluations, such as vegetables and fruits, fibers, apparel and clothing, mineral, oils, and fuels products.

## 1. INTRODUCTION

The trading literature provides with the proof of vigorous association between the Real Swapping scale devaluation and development of export growth, particularly in developing and rising nations (Aghion et al., 2009). Devalued cash makes exports less expensive to exporters, and therefore builds their interest in trades. In this way, both the amount and the estimation of trades are probably going to be influenced by swapping scale advancements. Also, swapping scale misalignment is presumably going to impact send out execution: RER, degrading/undervaluation is most likely going to make a probable comparable good situation in novel and progressively progressed exportable product and adventures. Undoubtedly, countries that have figured out how to build an underestimated RER (e.g., China, Chile and the Republic of Korea) seem to have many implications to overwhelmed official imperatives through the initial eras of their advancement procedure (Rodrik, 2008;Hung and Hoang, 2020;Elbadawi and Kaltani, 2016).

The research on exports and swapping scale is boun- teous and uncertain. At the macroeconomic level, while a few research studies have supported an ideal connection between swapping scale depreciations and export execution (Genc and Artar, 2014) others have indicated the restricted changes in trade execution following swapping scale developments in certain economies (Rowbotham et al., 2014;Loto, 2011). Crosswise over Middle East and North African (MENA) coun-attempts, research generally depend on total information as opposed to firm-level information (El-Ramly and Abdel-Haleim, 2008;Bahmani-Oskooee et al., 2015) While, at the firm level, a couple of examinations were led with respect to Latin America (Chen and Juvenal, 2016) for Argentina, Asia (Li et al., 2015) for China, Cheung, and Sengupta (2013) and for Belgium (Berman et al. 2012). While in our insight, no such research was coordinated for Middle East economies.

The instance of Iraq is imperative to think about the effect of swapping scale progressions on trades. This development mirrors the endeavors of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBE) to safeguard the Iraqi dinar, which lost just 4% of its incentive compared to the dollar between January 2011 and December 2012. Additionally, in December 2012, the CBE presented another framework for purchasing and selling outside money. The framework highlights normal cash barters, intended to permit the Iraqi dinar to glide all the more openly, with its value all the more firmly reflecting market interest.

The current examination has three essential commitments. In any case, in order to get the flitting components of the swapping scale, it used month to month firmlevel data got together with different extents of swapping scale and misalignment. Following, it was taken a gander at the impact of both devaluation and change scale misalignment on the concentrated (the sum and estimation of fares) and the expansive (the probability of fares is to push another objective, sending out another thing to a present objective, or exchanging a present thing to another objective) edges. Third, it was applied this assessment to the Iraqi economy considering the way that most definitely, no past examinations have looked into Africa or the MENA region, and Iraq has experienced a couple of deviations in its swapping scale framework. Right now, is interesting to take a gander at the effect of such a disintegration on the fare execution of Iraqi firms.

The fundamental contributions show that a RER devaluation raises the estimation of trades without influencing the amount of trades, featuring the way that the value impact is more critical than the amount impact in examining the trading border of exchange. At the end of the day, cash weakening brings down the remote money cost of exports yet doesn’t expand the amount of exports. Besides, the two proportions of the trading margins of exchange (i.e., the quantity of goals and the quantity of items) react decidedly to the conversion scale devaluation. At the sectorial level, the demanding border appears to issue for certain items more than others. Without a doubt, the most helpful items are those which are delicate to RER devaluations and for which Iraq has a similar preferred position, for example, foods grown from the ground, attire and dress, filaments, mineral fills and oils, and some concoction items. At the goal level, European nations appear to be the most sensitized in this regard.

## 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Our examination researches the impact of cash deterioration on exchanging edges utilizing a one of a kind arrangement of smaller scale informational collection. The major present examinations, particularly in the MENA area, utilize total information, while considers concentrating on miniaturized scale information are for the most part committed to created countries. In this way, it was analyzed the effect of swapping scale on send out execution at both total and firm level.

### 2.1 Macroeconomic Studies

Swapping scale developments are generally professed to affect export volumes. As per an ongoing International Monetary Fund (Brixiova et al., 2014) in view of yearly information for 60 economies from 1982 to 2015, a 17% genuine compelling deterioration in an economy’s cash is related with a normal ascent in genuine net trades of 1.6% of GDP. Albeit various examinations (Bahmani-Oskooee and Ardalani, 2006;Genc and Artar, 2014) have embraced some help capable connection between swapping scales debasements and export execution, different investigations have indicated the restricted changes in trade execution following swapping scale developments in certain markets. Rowbotham et al. (2014) investigated the relationship utilizing board information models and fixed impacts, their outcomes demonstrated that a more fragile swapping scales doesn’t really improve trade execution. Despite what might be expected, exchange development is by all accounts related with more grounded export rates. Past examinations from Loto (2011) proposed that a degrading/downgrading can easily profit nations which are at first convey based before the advancement of the cash, and that markets that are import-ward can scarcely benefit by these money improvements. Another perceptible model that checks the immaterial effect of swapping scale debasement on sends out is the circumstance of Japan. The Japanese desire practiced a postponed decay between the detailing time frames 1988–1990 and 1995–1997. Klitgaard (1999) surveyed how Japanese firms, in four ventures that spoke to generally 75% of Japanese fares in 1998, respond to the conflicting goals of keeping up constant net incomes and constant admission bargains when the estimation of the desire changes. The creator demonstrated that traders of Japan react in a similar way paying little heed to the yen’s course and contended that exporters of Japan ingest some portion of the yen’s development into their net revenues, an activity that lessens the benefit on everything traded when the desire acknowledges and raises the overall revenue when the desire deteriorates. In spite of the way that associations’ remote buyers without a doubt watch swapping scale driven changes in costs. Nonetheless, firms of Japan moderate the level of these movements by modifying their net incomes. Firms look to balance out costs as observed by their clients in both outside and residential markets, implying overall revenues increase and drop with the desire.

Crosswise over MENA economies, research about generally depends basically on total information as opposed to firm-level information. Following the downgrading of the Iraqi dinar in 2003, a lot of research concentrated on evaluating its effect on Iraqian yield, recommending that the beneficial outcome of debasement on yield begins to appear just over the long haul (El-Ramly and Abdel-Haleim, 2008). A few examinations indicated the critical effect of cash misalignment on exports execution. They demonstrated that during recent years, MENA countries experienced significant RER misalignment with a net affinity to overvaluation of their RER that conflictingly impacted made fares. Hardly any examinations have kept an eye on the association between swapping scale risk and Iraq’s exchanging. Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2015a) inspected the impact of the conversion standard hazard on Iraq’s exchange with the European Union by put on co-reconciliation investigation to information. The practitioners found that moderately hardly any exchange streams reacted to expanded hazard in the short-run. Be that as it may, over the long haul, an enormous extent (i.e., 24 of 59 import ventures and 28 of 59 fare enterprises) experienced exchange stream decreases because of the expanded swapping scale hazard, especially oil and gas just as huge businesses. Accordingly, the creators prescribed the requirement for brisk reactions to balance out the Iraqi dinar in connection to the Euro. Be that as it may, (Bahmani-Oskooee et al., 2015b) analyzed the impact of the swapping scale of Iraq’s on the swapping scale with the United States. They investigated that, since a long time ago there is positive relationship with trades expanding because of higher hazard in a huge extent of cases and presumed that neither oil sends out nor fares of different kinds of items remain to profit by a steady dinar.

### 2.2 Researches on Firm-Level

The thought on firms rather than total factors has expanded the level of the structure to comprehend firms’ responses to change standard progressions and further clarify the hard and fast level outcomes. These reaction combinations could be as a change in the costs of the exchanged things, the exchange capacity of merchandise, the objective nation, the plan of item that are exchanged, or the probability of acclimating new traders with the marketplace.

Amiti et al. (2014) also recommended a low all out experience for Belgian exporters, especially for gigantic traders who will as a rule have minor experience. Amiti et al. (2014) clarified that the low experience for greater firms happens in view of two essential reasons: firstly that tremendous exporters occur to be import concentrated firms, and what’s more, they furthermore balance for all intents and purposes half of the swapping scale advancement by powerful markup adjustment, which at last legitimizes the low all out experience. Then again, little nonbringing in firms scarcely alter their maker costs and completely give the swapping scale developments to for eign customers. In addition, Berman et al. (2012), using French firm-level data, suggested that firm heterogeneity can explain the low absolute adaptability of fares to swapping scale advancements in developed countries: High-productivity firms (normally greater firms) select to midway ingest transformation standard changes by growing their markups, inciting a reasonably calmed response of all out charges to exchange proportions. The consequences were affirmed once more by Cheung and Sengupta (2013) who used point by point firm-level data from a case of Indian non-budgetary firms to tentatively research the REER sway on firms’ toll lead for the period 2000–2010. Their trial assessment demonstrated that Indian firms that have tinier admission offers will when all is said in done have a more grounded negative answer not only to REER change but also to capriciousness. Moreover, firms that charge organizations are dynamically unprotected against swapping scale changes differentiated and those that send out items.

Earlier examinations from Campos (2007) recommended that new and officeholder Brazilian firms, who occur to have minor effectiveness, will all in all charge progressively huge costs, which is dependable with an enormous part of the firm-level composing discussed previously. While a large portion of the composing associated the worth change as per firm size/gainfulness, Chatterjee et al. (2013) explained that associations in Brazil advance their profit margin for all things as a result of a RER crumbling, regardless of the way that the development in creator costs is more grounded for things closer significantly things (i.e., things that the firm is commonly viable at making).

## 3. METHOD OF THE RESEARCH

### 3.1 A Macroeconomic Perspective

Iraq’s fares have experienced moderate advancement after the budgetary emergency in 2008 and the governmental agitation in 2011, extending by 19% some place in the scope of 2009 and 2013. As far as export goals, Figure 1 shows that Organization for Economic Co-activity and Development (OECD) economies and Arab nations for the most part represent more than 66% of Iraq’s exports. It is critical that the topographical circulation has likewise changed after the money related emergency when Iraq moved its fares from USA to Arab nations.

Table 1 demonstrates that the portion of oil trades has decreased, arriving at 30% in 2016, while crude resources and completed products have expanded to extent 9% and half, separately. The last are essentially overwhelmed by composts, articles of clothing, and materials. However, in view of the International Trade Center (ITC) figuring’s, Iraq wishes to have superior specialization to satisfy the worldwide need in developing divisions, as a large portion of the parts wherein Iraq is particular neglect to coordinate universal interest, except for fundamental oils, furniture, and consumable vegetables. Subsequently, so as to conquer such botched chances (because of specialization in asset based and low-innovation sends out), a more noteworthy spotlight on dynamiting areas at the world level is a need (particularly in hardware, gadgets, and high-innovation trades).

As far as relative benefit, Table 1 distinguishes three group of items: items with an expanding Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) somewhere in the range of 2001 and 2015, items with a diminishing relative bit of leeway (and in this manner declining pieces of the pie), and items that were not described by a similar favorable position in 2001 however in which Iraq figured out how to practice and increased some export pieces of the overall industry. The primary gathering incorporates swapping scales, for example, articles of attire and apparel frill, articles of stone, mortar, concrete, consumable foods grown from the ground, palatable roots, vegetables, glass and crystal, oil seeds and oleaginous natural products; organic product, results of the processing business, and cleanser.

So as to inspect the impact of swapping scale improvements on exchanging margins by following immense literature, it was embraced a gravity-type model that has become a basic apparatus in the empirics of universal trade to foresee reciprocal exchange streams utilizing various determinants of exchange [35–38]. In addition, this instrument has been generally utilized so as to inspect the impact of various factors (duties, non-levy measures or conversion scale) on exchange not only at macroeconomic but also at the fixed stages.

To quantify the swapping scale of trades, our reliant variable is the estimation of exchange between firm I in Iraq and nation j at month t (xkijt) for item k. Our logical factors incorporate old style gravitational factors, for example, the total national output (GDP) of accomplice j, a few factors estimating exchange costs that incorporate vehicle costs estimated by the reciprocal separation among Iraq and its accomplice j (dij), a few fakers catching whether one nation was a province of the former or far along (Colij), regardless of whether the two nations share a typical fringe (Contij) or offer a typical language (Langij). To look at the effect of swapping scale debasement (REERt), it was ran the accompanying regression:

$Ln( X i j k t ) b 0 b 1ln(GDP j t ) b 2ln( d i j ) b 3Col i j b 4Comcol i j b 5Conti i j b 6 Lang i j b 7 ln(REER t ) f y t e i j k t$
(1)

where f is firm stable effects, monthly and yearly firm fixed effects is yt, and the discrepancy term is eijkt.

It examined the swapping scale misalignment (Misal) effects on exports as follows:

$ln( X i j k t ) a 0 a 1ln(GDP j t ) a 2ln ( d i j ) a 3Col i j a 4Comcol i j a 5Conti i j a 6Lang i j a 7Misal t f y t w i j k t$
(2)

where wijkt is the discrepancy term.

It ran similar relapses and incorporate the quantity of items by firm I to goal j in month-year for the broad edges:

(3)

At long last, it was likewised explore the swapping scale advancements impact on the broad edge estimated by the quantity of goals by firm

• i in month-year t:

(4)

where Vt is the difference term.2

Sectorial relapses at Harmonized System-4 digits (HS4) level, likewise nation relapses are additionally rushed to figure out which things and markets are progressively touchy to swapping scale advancements.

Firms’ characteristics like capital, labor and location does not include in firm level dataset, so the feasible solution is adding fixed effects, along with to include month and year effects in order to characterize the swapping scale dataset.

## 4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS

### 4.1 Serious Border

In Table 2, the swapping scale effect is shown on the cost of exports (whether it is measured in USD or DIN). As far as the old-style gravity factors, distance has a critical negative effect on respective exchange trading, a typical language and pilgrim joins have a noteworthy positive effect. Additionally, a GDP builds the cost of trades. A devaluation of the RER (REER1 estimated by (Darvas, 2012) and REER2 by (Nouira et al., 2011) builds the export values. This is essentially credited to two fundamental reasons. To start with, this outcome relies upon the value elasticity of exports. On the off chance that the cost elasticity of exports regarding a remote cash of a nation that is not as much as solidarity, the value of exports as far as an outside money will decrease as the expansion in the number of trades will be greater than balance by the deterioration of the cash. Consequently, costs will respond more than amounts. Secondly, as Iraq is a net shipper of principal merchandise and crude resources utilized in exportable, the ascent in their import costs won’t just straightforwardly raise the value level, yet as they are utilized as contributions to the creation of different products, an ascent in their import’s costs will likewise push up the expense of generation of these different merchandises. This circumstance will along these lines produce cost-push expansion, particularly if the interest in importations is inflexible, which can disintegrate the advantages of deterioration except if the nation forces some protectionist measures. This outcome is in accordance with Chen and Juvenal (2016) and Li et al. (2015) who found a little reaction of export volumes to a censure. To be sure, the amount of traded exports, as opposed to costs, was found to have a reasonable reaction to cash reduction.

### 4.2 Intensive Margin

As indicated by the broad edge exchanging, it was originated that an expansion in GDP at the objective prompts an inferior amount of objectives, as traders will all in all gather their fares in immense markets Table 7. The more the detachment, the more objectives will be filled in as exporters will search for closer accessories. Table 3 displays a negative connection between the REER and passages. In this manner, Iraq is most likely going to watch higher development at the objective level with an increasingly downgraded (or belittled) money.

At the quantity of items levels, (Table 4) depicts that an increase in GDP is related with a greater number of items as bigger nations have a more grounded interest. Other traditional gravity factors have the normal sign and are factually critical. Our outcomes show that adjustments in the swapping scale significantly affect the scope of items traded by firms as a higher deterioration is probably going to build the quantity of items sent out to a specific goal. In reality, late exchange models acquaint the likelihood for firms with pick endogenously between the scope of items that they trade in the local market and additionally trade. Cadot et al. (2011) found comparable outcomes since they contended that low-and center pays nations differentiate generally along the broad margins (i.e., the expansion of new product offerings), while high pay nations expand towards the intensive margin.

The items in first group which Iraq doesn’t contains similar comparative advantage and that are not delicate to a genuine powerful depreciation in swapping scale. Our dataset contains 41 items, which represent 9% of complete exports and for the most part incorporate results of the printing business; silk; valuable or semi-valuable stones; stopper; base metals; melodic instruments; impregnated, artificial flowers; covered, secured, or overlaid material textures; vehicles other than railroad or tramway; toys, games, and sports necessities; pharmaceutical items; articles of cowhide, saddlery, and tackle; explosives; air ship; weaved or sewed textures; arms and ammo; apparatus, machines; atomic reactors; meat and eatable meat offal; espresso, tea, and flavors; beverages, spirits, and vinegar. These items principally face two challenges. To start with, some of them are dependent upon a few specialized obstructions to exchange just as sterile and phytosanitary measures that contrarily influence their exports. Second, some of them are escalated in high-innovation methods that are generally rare in Iraq contrasted and other nations. These items are not prone to be supported by a genuine devaluation as they are not touchy to money developments and Iraq doesn’t have a similar preferred position in their creation.

The second group incorporates items that are delicate to genuine deterioration, yet Iraq doesn’t have a near favorable position in their expert. These incorporate eight items, representing 9% of complete exports for trading: grains, buildups and waste from the nourishment businesses; metals; natural synthetics; elastic and articles thereof; iron and steel; electrical apparatus and gear. On the off chance that Iraq figures out how to increase a higher similar bit of leeway in such items, they are probably going to yield positive additions from a genuine devaluation. This gathering speaks to the broad edge of exchange from which Iraq can profit more with a genuine deterioration of the Iraqi dinar.

Third, it was distinguish items for which Iraq has a similar favorable position, yet which are not delicate to genuine deterioration (30 items with a portion of 26% in absolute fares). This gathering envelops: articles of attire and garments frill, not sewed or stitched; albuminoidal subpositions; cleanser and washing arrangements; tobacco; cocoa and cocoa arrangements; palatable results of creature source; textures of paper yarn; articles of iron or steel; rugs and other material floor covers; fired items, sweet shop; basic oils and resinoids; perfumery; manures; arrangements of vegetables, natural product, nuts, or different pieces of plants; inorganic synthetic compounds; natural or inorganic of valuable metals; fibers; live trees and different plants, bulbs, roots and so forth; trim blossoms and decorative; aluminum and articles thereof; and fleece, fine or coarse creature hair. As this gathering isn’t probably going to be influenced by the ongoing advancements in the swapping scale, one can’t expect send out development driven by cash devaluation. This is the reason it is critical to keep up their intensity regardless of a harshness as for the conversion standard, particularly for items that are sought after among the remainder of the world.

Fourth, at the sectorial level, the severe border appears to issue for certain items more than others. Without a doubt, the most helpful gathering incorporates items that are delicate to genuine deteriorations and for which Iraq has a near preferred position (18 items, representing a portion of 56% in the estimation of all out fares). These things join consumable like attractive nourishments developed from the beginning, of citrus normal item or melons, oil sources and oleaginous natural items; animal or vegetable butters and oils and their cleavage things, organized edible fats; inorganic forces, inorganic oils, and consequences of their refining; irregular compound things, plastics and articles thereof; courses of paper pound, paper, or paperboard; cotton; artificial staple fibers; articles of clothing and pieces of clothing embellishments, sewed or sewed, other invented material courses, damaged dress and worn material articles; articles of stone, mortar, bond, asbestos, mica, or comparable materials; glass and dish sets; copper and articles thereof; lead and articles thereof; extraordinary made articles. The revelations are modestly as per Bahmani-Oskooee and Hosny (2013) who found that a couple of organizations will benefit by the veritable debasement of the Iraqian dinar, for instance, live animals other than those of this partition; dairy things; fowls eggs; vegetables, regular item, coffee, tea, cocoa, flavors, manufactured sustenance and accidental consumable things and plans; oil seeds, oleaginous natural items; unpleasant composts harsh synthetics; remedial and pharmaceutical things; crush; electrical device; pre-gathered structures, sterile item, channels, warming, and parts thereof; bedding cushions. This gathering fall predominantly in the concentrated edge of exchange as it speaks to Iraq’s conventional exports.

## 5. DISCUSSION

A few variables may clarify why the dinar devaluation may limitedly affect Iraq’s fare volume and exchange balance. Actually, as a harsh dependable guideline, a 10% cheapening may expand costs by 3–4%. Also, imports are elastic as 65% of the exported merchandise are either middle of the road, venture, crude materials, and fuel essential for both generation and fares. In this manner, since degrading prompts higher import costs, crude materials utilized underway increment in cost and add to cost-push expansion. Somewhat, higher crude substantial prices balance the lower trade costs. Ahmed et al. (2015) contended that as nations are increasingly incorporated in worldwide generation forms, a cash deterioration just improves the aggressiveness of a small amount of the estimation of conclusive merchandise trades. In accordance with this instinct, the investigation discovers proof that the ascent of interest in worldwide worth chains clarifies, by and large, 40% of the fall in the versatility, and that redresses of the genuine compelling swapping scale for support in worldwide worth chains don’t present the equivalent diminishing example in flexibility. This is the reason Hummels et al. (2016) additionally realized that the utilization of trade in contributions to delivering products that are sent out (vertical specialization) represents 21% of OECD sends out and became practically 30% somewhere in the range of 1960 and 1992. They likewise found that development represents 20% of the development in these nations’ fares. Second, a depreciation may have a restricted impact if the nation’s primary fare accomplices are in a downturn. Surely, the Eurozone, which is Iraq’s primary exchanging accomplice, has powerless development. Along these lines, increasingly aggressive Iraqi fares may be deficient to help trade request.

Third, Iraqi firms will pass on the impacts of debasement. To be sure, while downgrading prompts a lower cost of fares, firms decide to keep outside cash costs as they are to expand their net revenues. Fourth, deterioration influences request, supply isn’t concerned. Subsequently, a few investigations contend that deterioration can decrease the motivating force to be effective in light of the fact that organizations can get focused without the exertion of expanding efficiency, which may make devaluation wasteful. In addition, two other significant and interesting findings are identified with the extensive margin trading: a more grounded devaluation prompts an expansion in the quantity of items traded and the quantity of goals. Hence, genuine deterioration can be seen as a device to advance fare broadening at item and market levels and to lessen Iraq’s reliance on explicit items or goals.

## Figure

Iraq’s fares by area of goal.

## Table

Iraq’s exports

Consequences of the Severe border trading –export values

Extensive margin results

Extensive margin results Product

REER vs. RCA sensitivity

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